Question
Before the first year in which GWP growth exceeds 30%, how many FLOP will be used in the largest ML training run?
Total Forecasters7
Community Prediction
1.5×10²⁹ FLOP
(6.9×10²⁷ - 1.6×10³¹)
Make a Prediction
CDF
| Lower bound | community | My Prediction |
| <1×10²⁵ | 3.0% | — |
| Quartiles | ||
| lower 25% | 6.9×10²⁷ | — |
| median | 1.5×10²⁹ | — |
| upper 75% | 1.6×10³¹ | — |
| Upper bound | ||
| >1×10⁵⁰ | 0.2% | — |
Authors:
Opened:Jan 27, 2023
Closes:Jan 1, 2200
Scheduled resolution:Jan 1, 2200
Spot Scoring Time:Jan 29, 2023
Comments
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Authors:
Opened:Jan 27, 2023
Closes:Jan 1, 2200
Scheduled resolution:Jan 1, 2200
Spot Scoring Time:Jan 29, 2023
