đź“– The ACX 2025 Prediction Contest Is Open!

The Astral Codex Ten Prediction Contest is back with an expanded $10,000 prize pool! Test your forecasting skills across geopolitics, technology, economics, and more with questions curated by Scott Alexander. Make your predictions by January 31 to compete.

🔭 The Bridgewater x Metaculus Forecasting Contest Goes Global — Feb 3

For the second year, Metaculus is teaming up with Bridgewater Associates to host a competition featuring $25k in prizes and potential opportunities with the asset management firm — and this year, forecasters from around the globe can compete.

Start here to register for the February 3rd competition, warm up on practice questions, and learn about the separate Open and Undergraduate leaderboards.

M

Question

Will state-based conflict between Israel and Iran cause at least 1,000 deaths before 2025?

26
81
Total Forecasters282
Community Prediction0.4% (0.1% - 2%)

Make a Prediction

50%
community: 0.4%
This question is closed for predictions, and is waiting to be resolved
Authors:
NMorrisonRyanBeck
Opened:
Closed:
Scheduled resolution:
Israel-Gaza Conflict
Geopolitics
2021-2025 Leaderboard
Iran
Iranian Revolution
Syrian civil war
Iran–Israel proxy conflict
Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action
Israel
Hezbollah–Israel conflict

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