Question
Will state-based conflict between Israel and Iran cause at least 1,000 deaths before 2025?
Total Forecasters282
Community Prediction
0.4%
(0.1% - 2%)
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This question is closed for predictions, and is waiting to be resolved
Authors:
Opened:Feb 2, 2023
Closed:Dec 31, 2024
Scheduled resolution:Aug 1, 2025
Spot Scoring Time:Feb 3, 2023
Learn more about Metaculus NewsMatch
Will there be at least 1,000 deaths due to direct conflict between Israel and Iran in 2025?
7.5%
Will the number of deaths due to direct conflict between Israel and Iran reach the following thresholds before 2026?
Will state-based conflict between Iran and Saudi Arabia cause at least 1,000 deaths in a single year before 2070?
15%
Comments
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Authors:
Opened:Feb 2, 2023
Closed:Dec 31, 2024
Scheduled resolution:Aug 1, 2025
Spot Scoring Time:Feb 3, 2023
Learn more about Metaculus NewsMatch
Will there be at least 1,000 deaths due to direct conflict between Israel and Iran in 2025?
7.5%
Will the number of deaths due to direct conflict between Israel and Iran reach the following thresholds before 2026?
Will state-based conflict between Iran and Saudi Arabia cause at least 1,000 deaths in a single year before 2070?
15%