Question

Will there be at least 10,000 confirmed deaths due to H5N1 before 2024?

Resolved :No

9 comments9

Total Forecasters76

Community Prediction0.1%

Make a Prediction

50%

community: 0.1%

Did this actually happen?No

Community Baseline Score

97.0

Community Peer Score

2.0

median 0.1%mean 1.3%

Authors:

juancambeiro

Opened:

Closes:

Resolves:

Health & Pandemics

Natural Sciences

Influenza A virus subtype H5N1

Human mortality from H5N1

Public health

Medicine

Virology

World Health Organization

Microbiology

Epidemiology

If at least 100 human cases of H5N1 are confirmed in the United States in 2024, what will the estimated case fatality rate (in percent) be in the US?

1.27

Will human cases of HPAI clade 2.3.4.4b avian influenza exceed 500,000 before 2025?

0.1%

When will human cases of HPAI clade 2.3.4.4b avian influenza exceed 500,000?

2040-01-01

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