Question

Will a post-Putin Russia substantially democratise within 5 years?

17 comments17

Total Forecasters130

Community Prediction15% (7% - 36%)

Make a Prediction

50%

community: 15%

Authors:

PhilippSchoenegger

Opened:

Feb 15, 2023

Closes:

Jan 1, 2050

Scheduled resolution:

Jan 1, 2055

Russia under Vladimir Putin

Ukraine

Russia

Russia’s War on Ukraine Three Years On

•Feb 24, 2025

As peace deal nears, what has Putin won after three years of slaughter... and what has he lost? NATO divided, swathes of Ukrainian territory claimed - but the military alliance is LARGER and Russian a

Daily Mail•Feb 28, 2025

Chilling prediction of Putin's 'Eurussian Empire' illustrates how Russia could spread war across Europe in five years

Daily Mail•Feb 27, 2025

Learn more about Metaculus NewsMatch

What will be the Democracy Index of Russia in the 2030 report by the Economist Intelligence Unit?

2.26

When will Vladimir Putin cease to hold the office of President of Russia?

2029-07-01

Will the next Russian leader disapprove of the Russian invasion of Ukraine?

22%

Comments

? comments