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M

conditional
condition

Human/Machine Intelligence Parity by 2040?

49 forecasters
if yes
if no

US Compute Capacity Restrictions before 2050?

35%
35%

US Compute Capacity Restrictions before 2050?

20%
20%
11
2

Make a Prediction

Human/Machine Intelligence Parity by 2040?

US Compute Capacity Restrictions before 2050?

50%
community: 35%

Forecast Timeline

Authors:
PhilippSchoenegger
Opened:
Closes:
Scheduled resolution:
Computing and Math
Artificial Intelligence
Export of cryptography from the United States
Cryptography
AlphaGo
Machine learning
United States
DeepMind

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