Question

Will the US claim that Russia has exceeded New START treaty limits on nuclear weapons before 2025?

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Total Forecasters35

Community Prediction19% (2% - 42%)

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50%

community: 19%

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Authors:

NMorrison Scoblic PhilippSchoenegger

Opened:

Closes:

Scheduled resolution:

Geopolitics

Nuclear Technology & Risks

2021-2025 Leaderboard

United States

Foreign policy of Vladimir Putin

New START

Russia

Does Putin's New 'Oreshnik' Missile Transform Rules of Nuclear Warfare?

Newsweek•Dec 13, 2024

Putin Reveals When Russia May Use Nuclear Weapons Under New Doctrine

Newsweek•Dec 19, 2024

US warns Russia may be ready to use new lethal missile against Ukraine again in ‘coming days’

New York Post•Dec 13, 2024

Learn more about Metaculus NewsMatch

Conditional on New START not being renewed or replaced by another similar treaty after February 2026, will there be a nuclear exchange between Russia and the US by 2035?

3.9%

Conditional on New START being renewed or replaced by another similar treaty after February 2026, will there be a nuclear exchange between Russia and the US by 2035?

3.6%

Will the New START nuclear arms control agreement be renewed until at least February 5, 2027?

43%

Comments

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Authors:

NMorrison Scoblic PhilippSchoenegger

Opened:

Closes:

Scheduled resolution:

Geopolitics

Nuclear Technology & Risks

2021-2025 Leaderboard

United States

Foreign policy of Vladimir Putin

New START

Russia

Does Putin's New 'Oreshnik' Missile Transform Rules of Nuclear Warfare?

Newsweek•Dec 13, 2024

Putin Reveals When Russia May Use Nuclear Weapons Under New Doctrine

Newsweek•Dec 19, 2024

US warns Russia may be ready to use new lethal missile against Ukraine again in ‘coming days’

New York Post•Dec 13, 2024

Learn more about Metaculus NewsMatch

Conditional on New START not being renewed or replaced by another similar treaty after February 2026, will there be a nuclear exchange between Russia and the US by 2035?

3.9%

Conditional on New START being renewed or replaced by another similar treaty after February 2026, will there be a nuclear exchange between Russia and the US by 2035?

3.6%

Will the New START nuclear arms control agreement be renewed until at least February 5, 2027?

43%

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Will the US claim that Russia has exceeded New START treaty limits on nuclear weapons before 2025?

Make a Prediction

Conditional on New START not being renewed or replaced by another similar treaty after February 2026, will there be a nuclear exchange between Russia and the US by 2035?

Conditional on New START being renewed or replaced by another similar treaty after February 2026, will there be a nuclear exchange between Russia and the US by 2035?

Will the New START nuclear arms control agreement be renewed until at least February 5, 2027?

Comments

Conditional on New START not being renewed or replaced by another similar treaty after February 2026, will there be a nuclear exchange between Russia and the US by 2035?

Conditional on New START being renewed or replaced by another similar treaty after February 2026, will there be a nuclear exchange between Russia and the US by 2035?

Will the New START nuclear arms control agreement be renewed until at least February 5, 2027?

Conditional on New START not being renewed or replaced by another similar treaty after February 2026, will there be a nuclear exchange between Russia and the US by 2035?

Conditional on New START being renewed or replaced by another similar treaty after February 2026, will there be a nuclear exchange between Russia and the US by 2035?

Will the New START nuclear arms control agreement be renewed until at least February 5, 2027?

Conditional on New START not being renewed or replaced by another similar treaty after February 2026, will there be a nuclear exchange between Russia and the US by 2035?

Conditional on New START being renewed or replaced by another similar treaty after February 2026, will there be a nuclear exchange between Russia and the US by 2035?

Will the New START nuclear arms control agreement be renewed until at least February 5, 2027?