Question

Will the US claim that Russia has exceeded New START treaty limits on nuclear weapons before 2025?

1 comment1

Total Forecasters34

Community Prediction30%

Make a Prediction

50%

community: 30%

median 30.0%mean 30.4%

Authors:

NMorrison Scoblic PhilippSchoenegger

Opened:

Closes:

Scheduled resolution:

Geopolitics

Nuclear Technology & Risks

United States

Foreign policy of Vladimir Putin

New START

Russia

Conditional on New START not being renewed or replaced by another similar treaty after February 2026, will there be a nuclear exchange between Russia and the US by 2035?

3.9%

Conditional on New START being renewed or replaced by another similar treaty after February 2026, will there be a nuclear exchange between Russia and the US by 2035?

3.6%

Will the New START nuclear arms control agreement be renewed until at least February 5, 2027?

43%

Comments

? comments

Authors:

NMorrison Scoblic PhilippSchoenegger

Opened:

Closes:

Scheduled resolution:

Geopolitics

Nuclear Technology & Risks

United States

Foreign policy of Vladimir Putin

New START

Russia

Putin fine-tunes Russia’s nuclear doctrine after Biden’s arms decision on Ukraine, in clear signal to West

CNN•Nov 19, 2024

Russia says Ukraine attacked it using U.S. long-range missiles, signals it's ready for nuclear response

CNBC•Nov 19, 2024

Putin issues warning to United States with new nuclear doctrine after Biden allows Ukraine to use long-range US missiles

New York Post•Nov 19, 2024

Learn more about Metaculus NewsMatch

Conditional on New START not being renewed or replaced by another similar treaty after February 2026, will there be a nuclear exchange between Russia and the US by 2035?

3.9%

Conditional on New START being renewed or replaced by another similar treaty after February 2026, will there be a nuclear exchange between Russia and the US by 2035?

3.6%

Will the New START nuclear arms control agreement be renewed until at least February 5, 2027?

43%