Question

Will Metaculus predict that artificial intelligence continues to pose a global catastrophic risk by 2040?

17 comments17

Total Forecasters145

Community Prediction85% (65% - 90%)

Make a Prediction

50%

community: 85%

Authors:

Tamay

Opened:

Nov 5, 2018

Closes:

Jan 1, 2040

Scheduled resolution:

Jul 12, 2040

Computing and Math

Artificial Intelligence

Risk management

Ethics

Existential risk from AGI

Cybersecurity standards

Future of Life Institute

AI control problem

Cyber-security regulation

OpenAI boss Sam Altman says human-level intelligence is coming – and it won’t be fair

Independent•Feb 12, 2025

Meta says it may stop development of AI systems it deems too risky

TechCrunch•Feb 16, 2025

Experts share chilling warning over DeepSeek as it sparks 'Lord Of the Rings race' for superhuman intelligence

Daily Mail•Feb 15, 2025

Learn more about Metaculus NewsMatch

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