MetaculusM

Question

Before 2100, will there be a 5-year period with an average global temperature >3.6˚C warmer than the 1861-1880 baseline?

20

Total Forecasters137

Community Prediction20% (12% - 37%)

Make a Prediction

50%

community: 20%

Authors:

Opened:

Nov 5, 2018

Closes:

Jan 1, 2100

Scheduled resolution:

Jan 16, 2100

Environment & Climate

Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change

2024’s extreme ocean heat breaks records again, leaving 2 mysteries to solve

The Conversation•Jan 21, 2025

The world is on track for between 1.9 and 3.7°C of warming by 2100

New Scientist•Jan 25, 2025

Relentless warming is driving the water cycle to new extremes, the 2024 global water report shows

The Conversation•Jan 26, 2025

Learn more about Metaculus NewsMatch

Comments

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Authors:

Opened:

Nov 5, 2018

Closes:

Jan 1, 2100

Scheduled resolution:

Jan 16, 2100

Environment & Climate

Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change

2024’s extreme ocean heat breaks records again, leaving 2 mysteries to solve

The Conversation•Jan 21, 2025

The world is on track for between 1.9 and 3.7°C of warming by 2100

New Scientist•Jan 25, 2025

Relentless warming is driving the water cycle to new extremes, the 2024 global water report shows

The Conversation•Jan 26, 2025

Learn more about Metaculus NewsMatch