Question

When will OpenAI announce GPT-5?

Total Forecasters958

Community Prediction2025-07-14 (2025-05-03 - 2025-10-17)

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CDF

weight:

	lower 25%	median	upper 75%	>2026-05-15
community	03 May 2025	14 Jul 2025	17 Oct 2025	5.7%
My Prediction	—	—	—	—

Quartiles	community	My Prediction
lower 25%	03 May 2025	—
median	14 Jul 2025	—
upper 75%	17 Oct 2025	—
Upper bound
>2026-05-15	5.7%	—

Authors:

H559

Opened:

Mar 15, 2023

Closes:

May 14, 2026

Scheduled resolution:

May 15, 2026

Business of AI

Effective Institutions Project

Computing and Math

Artificial Intelligence

GPT

OpenAI

Chatbot

OpenAI cancels its o3 AI model in favor of a ‘unified’ next-gen release

TechCrunch•Feb 13, 2025

OpenAI lays out plans for GPT-5

Verge•Feb 13, 2025

Sam Altman details the plan for OpenAI's GPT-5

Business Insider•Feb 13, 2025

Learn more about Metaculus NewsMatch

When will GPT-5 be available to the general public?

2025-07-16

When will an AI model trained with the following orders of magnitude more compute than GPT-4 be released?

Will OpenAI release an LLM product or API that hallucinates 5x less than GPT-4 did when it was released, by June 30, 2025?

80%

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