📖 The ACX 2025 Prediction Contest Is Open!

The Astral Codex Ten Prediction Contest is back with an expanded $10,000 prize pool! Test your forecasting skills across geopolitics, technology, economics, and more with questions curated by Scott Alexander. Make your predictions by January 31 to compete.

🔭 The Bridgewater x Metaculus Forecasting Contest Goes Global — Feb 3

For the second year, Metaculus is teaming up with Bridgewater Associates to host a competition featuring $25k in prizes and potential opportunities with the asset management firm — and this year, forecasters from around the globe can compete.

Start here to register for the February 3rd competition, warm up on practice questions, and learn about the separate Open and Undergraduate leaderboards.

M

Group

Will the estimated training FLOPs of any exfiltrated AI exceed the indicated amount before the indicated year?

3
3

Forecast Timeline

Make a Prediction

Year/FLOPsMe
Year: 2026 FLOPs: 10e26
-
Year: 2032 FLOPs: 10e30
-
Year: 2036 FLOPs: 10e32
-
Year: 2028 FLOPs: 10e28
-
Year: 2040 FLOPs: 10e32
-
Authors:
GustavoLacerda
Opened:
Closes:
Scheduled resolution:
AI Training and Compute
AI Technical Benchmarks
Artificial Intelligence
2023 Leaderboard
FLOPS
Measurement
Information technology
Computer hardware

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