Question

Will there be at least 1 fatality from a non-test nuclear detonation before 2025?

Resolved :No0.3%

2 comments2

Total Forecasters49

Community Prediction0.3% (0.1% - 1%)

Make a Prediction

50%

community: 0.3%

Did this actually happen?No

Community Baseline Score

96.0

Community Peer Score

9.9

Authors:

casens

Opened:

Apr 19, 2023

Closes:

Dec 31, 2024

Resolves:

Jan 1, 2025

Geopolitics

2021-2025 Leaderboard

Vladimir Putin

Foreign policy of Vladimir Putin

Atomic bombings of Hiroshima and Nagasaki

Nuclear weapons testing

Peaceful nuclear explosion

Cuban Missile Crisis

Russia

Joe Biden Under Pressure To Take Away Donald Trump's Nuclear War Power

Newsweek•Feb 16, 2025

Inside secret US lab where US will begin testing nukes again amid fears of WWIII

Daily Mail•Feb 16, 2025

Chilling map reveals where 75% of US population could perish in event of a nuclear attack

Daily Mail•Feb 17, 2025

Learn more about Metaculus NewsMatch

Will there be at least one fatality in the US from a non-test nuclear detonation by 2050 if a non-test detonation causes a fatality anywhere?

25%

Will a non-test nuclear detonation by a non-state actor cause at least one fatality by 2030?

Will no non-test nuclear weapons be detonated before 2035?

80%

Comments

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