Question

Will there be at least 1 fatality from a non-test nuclear detonation before 2025?

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Total Forecasters48

Community Prediction0.7% (0.1% - 1.3%)

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50%

community: 0.7%

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Geopolitics

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Vladimir Putin

Foreign policy of Vladimir Putin

Atomic bombings of Hiroshima and Nagasaki

Nuclear weapons testing

Peaceful nuclear explosion

Cuban Missile Crisis

Russia

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Newsweek•Dec 13, 2024

Joe Biden Under Pressure To Take Away Donald Trump's Nuclear War Power

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The fragility of nuclear deterrence

Strategic Culture•Dec 13, 2024

Learn more about Metaculus NewsMatch

Will there be at least one fatality in the US from a non-test nuclear detonation by 2050 if a non-test detonation causes a fatality anywhere?

28%

Will a non-test nuclear detonation by a non-state actor cause at least one fatality by 2030?

3.5%

Will no non-test nuclear weapons be detonated before 2035?

80%

Comments

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Authors:

casens

Opened:

Closes:

Scheduled resolution:

Geopolitics

2021-2025 Leaderboard

Vladimir Putin

Foreign policy of Vladimir Putin

Atomic bombings of Hiroshima and Nagasaki

Nuclear weapons testing

Peaceful nuclear explosion

Cuban Missile Crisis

Russia

Does Putin's New 'Oreshnik' Missile Transform Rules of Nuclear Warfare?

Newsweek•Dec 13, 2024

Joe Biden Under Pressure To Take Away Donald Trump's Nuclear War Power

Newsweek•Dec 13, 2024

The fragility of nuclear deterrence

Strategic Culture•Dec 13, 2024

Learn more about Metaculus NewsMatch

Will there be at least one fatality in the US from a non-test nuclear detonation by 2050 if a non-test detonation causes a fatality anywhere?

28%

Will a non-test nuclear detonation by a non-state actor cause at least one fatality by 2030?

3.5%

Will no non-test nuclear weapons be detonated before 2035?

80%

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Will there be at least 1 fatality from a non-test nuclear detonation before 2025?

Make a Prediction

Will there be at least one fatality in the US from a non-test nuclear detonation by 2050 if a non-test detonation causes a fatality anywhere?

Will a non-test nuclear detonation by a non-state actor cause at least one fatality by 2030?

Will no non-test nuclear weapons be detonated before 2035?

Comments

Will there be at least one fatality in the US from a non-test nuclear detonation by 2050 if a non-test detonation causes a fatality anywhere?

Will a non-test nuclear detonation by a non-state actor cause at least one fatality by 2030?

Will no non-test nuclear weapons be detonated before 2035?

Will there be at least one fatality in the US from a non-test nuclear detonation by 2050 if a non-test detonation causes a fatality anywhere?

Will a non-test nuclear detonation by a non-state actor cause at least one fatality by 2030?

Will no non-test nuclear weapons be detonated before 2035?

Will there be at least one fatality in the US from a non-test nuclear detonation by 2050 if a non-test detonation causes a fatality anywhere?

Will a non-test nuclear detonation by a non-state actor cause at least one fatality by 2030?

Will no non-test nuclear weapons be detonated before 2035?