Group

Will the Global Partnership on AI be active by the following years?

14 forecasters

Forecast Timeline

Total Forecasters 14

2026

2031

Make a Prediction

Year		My Prediction		Me
2026	70%

2031	41.1%

Authors:

will_aldred elifland

Opened:

Apr 24, 2023

Closes:

Jan 1, 2031

Scheduled resolution:

Jan 1, 2031

Regulation of AI

Artificial Intelligence

Computing and Math

2021-2025 Leaderboard

In Paris, Tech CEOs and Global Leaders Shift Stances on A.I. Safety

Observer (NY)•Feb 16, 2025

Global disunity, energy concerns and the shadow of Musk: key takeaways from the Paris AI summit

Guardian•Feb 16, 2025

Don’t let AI make inequality worse, says UN adviser

CNN•Feb 19, 2025

Learn more about Metaculus NewsMatch

Will an international AI regulatory agency, like IAEA, for oversight of transformative AI systems be established before 2030?

50%

Will any AI regulation treaty that controls or monitors AI development be signed by the US and China before the following years?

Will the US and China be party to any AI regulation treaty that controls or monitors AI development in the following years?

Comments

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Authors:

will_aldred elifland

Opened:

Apr 24, 2023

Closes:

Jan 1, 2031

Scheduled resolution:

Jan 1, 2031

Regulation of AI

Artificial Intelligence

Computing and Math

2021-2025 Leaderboard

In Paris, Tech CEOs and Global Leaders Shift Stances on A.I. Safety

Observer (NY)•Feb 16, 2025

Global disunity, energy concerns and the shadow of Musk: key takeaways from the Paris AI summit

Guardian•Feb 16, 2025

Don’t let AI make inequality worse, says UN adviser

CNN•Feb 19, 2025

Learn more about Metaculus NewsMatch

Will an international AI regulatory agency, like IAEA, for oversight of transformative AI systems be established before 2030?

50%