Question

What will be the greatest velocity (in c) attained by a human-made spacecraft before 2050?

Total Forecasters72

Community Prediction0.00261 (9.89×10⁻⁴ - 0.0147)

Make a Prediction

PDF

CDF

weight:

	lower 25%	median	upper 75%	>1
community	9.887×10⁻⁴	0.002612	0.01472	1.7%
My Prediction	—	—	—	—

Quartiles	community	My Prediction
lower 25%	9.887×10⁻⁴	—
median	0.002612	—
upper 75%	0.01472	—
Upper bound
>1	1.7%	—

Authors:

Jgalt

Opened:

Dec 22, 2018

Closes:

Jan 1, 2050

Scheduled resolution:

Jan 1, 2050

NASA’s crew capsule had heat shield issues during Artemis I − an aerospace expert on these critical spacecraft components

The Conversation•Feb 16, 2025

Artificial solar eclipse: Why are satellites trying to block the sun?

Al Jazeera•Feb 18, 2025

Parker Solar Probe will soon go deeper into the sun than ever before

New Scientist•Feb 18, 2025

Learn more about Metaculus NewsMatch

Will the maximum speed of a human spacecraft reach at least 66,000 km/s (0.22 times the speed of light) by 2075?

17.3%

Conditional on civilization launching one or more von Neumann probes by 2200 that will reach another solar system within 100,000 years, what will be the average speed of the fastest one, in c?

0.108

Conditional on civilization launching one or more von Neumann probes by 2200 that will reach another solar system within 100,000 years, what will be the average speed of the fastest one, in c (> 1)?

193

Comments

? comments

Authors:

Jgalt

Opened:

Dec 22, 2018

Closes:

Jan 1, 2050

Scheduled resolution:

Jan 1, 2050

NASA’s crew capsule had heat shield issues during Artemis I − an aerospace expert on these critical spacecraft components

The Conversation•Feb 16, 2025

Artificial solar eclipse: Why are satellites trying to block the sun?

Al Jazeera•Feb 18, 2025

Parker Solar Probe will soon go deeper into the sun than ever before

New Scientist•Feb 18, 2025

Learn more about Metaculus NewsMatch

Will the maximum speed of a human spacecraft reach at least 66,000 km/s (0.22 times the speed of light) by 2075?

17.3%

Conditional on civilization launching one or more von Neumann probes by 2200 that will reach another solar system within 100,000 years, what will be the average speed of the fastest one, in c?

0.108

Conditional on civilization launching one or more von Neumann probes by 2200 that will reach another solar system within 100,000 years, what will be the average speed of the fastest one, in c (> 1)?

193