Chinese Control of Half of Taiwan by 2050?

conditional

condition

DPP wins 2024 Taiwanese election?

Resolved :Yes

if yes

if no

Chinese Control of Half of Taiwan by 2050?

55%

Chinese Control of Half of Taiwan by 2050?

48%

Resolved :Annulled

1 comment1

Make a Prediction

DPP wins 2024 Taiwanese election?	Chinese Control of Half of Taiwan by 2050?
if yes	My Prediction: —
if no	My Prediction: —

50%

community: 55%

Forecast Timeline

Yes

Authors:

Zaldath

Opened:

Closes:

Scheduled resolution:

2020 Taiwanese presidential election

Tsai Ing-wen

Democratic Progressive Party

2024 US Presidential Election Winner? (Donald Trump) → Chinese Invasion of Taiwan? (2030)

Will the People's Republic of China control at least half of Taiwan before 2050?

34%

Will the People's Republic of China control at least half of Taiwan before 2030?

10%

Comments

? comments

Authors:

Zaldath

Opened:

Closes:

Scheduled resolution:

2020 Taiwanese presidential election

Tsai Ing-wen

Democratic Progressive Party

Taiwan worries about 'transactionalist' Trump as U.S. votes

Raw Story•Oct 29, 2024

Election 2024 live updates: Trump and Harris rally out West

NBC•Oct 31, 2024

What China Thinks of the 2024 US Election

Newsweek•Nov 6, 2024

Learn more about Metaculus NewsMatch

2024 US Presidential Election Winner? (Donald Trump) → Chinese Invasion of Taiwan? (2030)

Will the People's Republic of China control at least half of Taiwan before 2050?

34%

Will the People's Republic of China control at least half of Taiwan before 2030?

10%