Question

Will there be a Frontier AI Lab outside the US before 2026?

Resolved :Yes89%

6 comments6

Total Forecasters50

Community Prediction89% (81.9% - 99%)

Make a Prediction

50%

community: 89%

Did this actually happen?Yes

Community Baseline Score

7.3

Community Peer Score

0.9

Authors:

PeterWildeford

Opened:

Apr 29, 2023

Closes:

Dec 31, 2025

Resolves:

Dec 31, 2025

Regulation of AI

Artificial Intelligence

2021-2025 Leaderboard

How many Frontier AI labs will there be on Dec 31, 2025?

5.39

Will three or more Frontier AI Labs issue a joint statement committing to constrain their AI's capabilities before 2026?

15%

Before 2030, how many new AI labs will be leading labs within 2 years of their founding?

Comments

? comments

Authors:

PeterWildeford

Opened:

Apr 29, 2023

Closes:

Dec 31, 2025

Resolves:

Dec 31, 2025

Regulation of AI

Artificial Intelligence

2021-2025 Leaderboard

How many Frontier AI labs will there be on Dec 31, 2025?

5.39

Will three or more Frontier AI Labs issue a joint statement committing to constrain their AI's capabilities before 2026?

15%