Question

What will be the lowest number of annual births in Japan through the year 2100?

Total Forecasters11

Community Prediction575k (429k - 728k)

Make a Prediction

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CDF

weight:

	lower 25%	median	upper 75%	>2.7M
community	429.2k	575.5k	728.4k	0.1%
My Prediction	—	—	—	—

Quartiles	community	My Prediction
lower 25%	429.2k	—
median	575.5k	—
upper 75%	728.4k	—
Upper bound
>2.7M	0.1%	—

Authors:

Joker

Opened:

May 5, 2023

Closes:

Jan 1, 2101

Scheduled resolution:

Jan 1, 2103

Japan

Ministry of Health, Labour and Welfare

China's Marriage Numbers Plunge Amid Population Crisis

Newsweek•Feb 12, 2025

Japanese royals go on the charm offensive: Imperial family launches bid to appeal to public amid threat of 'extinction' as they face shortage of heirs

Daily Mail•Feb 12, 2025

China wants people to get married and have children — no one is listening

Independent•Feb 13, 2025

Learn more about Metaculus NewsMatch

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73%

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What will be the global total fertility rate in the following years?

2.17

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