📖 The ACX 2025 Prediction Contest Is Open!

The Astral Codex Ten Prediction Contest is back with an expanded $10,000 prize pool! Test your forecasting skills across geopolitics, technology, economics, and more with questions curated by Scott Alexander. Make your predictions by January 31 to compete.

🔭 The Bridgewater x Metaculus Forecasting Contest Goes Global — Feb 3

For the second year, Metaculus is teaming up with Bridgewater Associates to host a competition featuring $25k in prizes and potential opportunities with the asset management firm — and this year, forecasters from around the globe can compete.

Start here to register for the February 3rd competition, warm up on practice questions, and learn about the separate Open and Undergraduate leaderboards.

M

Question

Will George R. R. Martin die before the final book of A Song Of Ice And Fire is published?

34
30
Total Forecasters327
Community Prediction80% (68% - 87%)

Make a Prediction

50%
community: 80%
This question is closed for predictions, and is waiting to be resolved
Authors:
KrisMoore
Opened:
Closed:
Scheduled resolution:
Sports & Entertainment
2016-2025 Leaderboard
The Winds of Winter
A Song of Ice and Fire
George R. R. Martin
Game of Thrones

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