Question

Will George R. R. Martin die before the final book of A Song Of Ice And Fire is published?

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Community Prediction80% (68% - 87%)

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KrisMoore

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Sports & Entertainment

2016-2025 Leaderboard

A Song of Ice and Fire

The Winds of Winter

George R. R. Martin

Game of Thrones

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When, before 2040, will George R. R. Martin's "The Winds of Winter" be released?

2033-08-01

Will George R. R. Martin publish the sixth novel in "A Song of Ice and Fire" before Patrick Rothfuss publishes the third novel in "The Kingkiller Chronicle"?

40%

When will George R. R. Martin's “The Winds of Winter” be released?

2026-12-31

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Authors:

KrisMoore

Opened:

Closed:

Scheduled resolution:

Sports & Entertainment

2016-2025 Leaderboard

A Song of Ice and Fire

The Winds of Winter

George R. R. Martin

Game of Thrones

I'm Pretty Sure Yellowstone Just Set Up Its 6666 Spinoff, And I Have A Theory About A Big Event Happening In The Finale

•Dec 15, 2024

5 big predictions for the Yellowstone Season 5 finale

•Dec 15, 2024

Daily Mail•Dec 16, 2024

Learn more about Metaculus NewsMatch

When, before 2040, will George R. R. Martin's "The Winds of Winter" be released?

2033-08-01

Will George R. R. Martin publish the sixth novel in "A Song of Ice and Fire" before Patrick Rothfuss publishes the third novel in "The Kingkiller Chronicle"?

40%

When will George R. R. Martin's “The Winds of Winter” be released?

2026-12-31

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Will George R. R. Martin die before the final book of A Song Of Ice And Fire is published?

Make a Prediction

When, before 2040, will George R. R. Martin's "The Winds of Winter" be released?

Will George R. R. Martin publish the sixth novel in "A Song of Ice and Fire" before Patrick Rothfuss publishes the third novel in "The Kingkiller Chronicle"?

When will George R. R. Martin's “The Winds of Winter” be released?

Comments

When, before 2040, will George R. R. Martin's "The Winds of Winter" be released?

Will George R. R. Martin publish the sixth novel in "A Song of Ice and Fire" before Patrick Rothfuss publishes the third novel in "The Kingkiller Chronicle"?

When will George R. R. Martin's “The Winds of Winter” be released?

When, before 2040, will George R. R. Martin's "The Winds of Winter" be released?

Will George R. R. Martin publish the sixth novel in "A Song of Ice and Fire" before Patrick Rothfuss publishes the third novel in "The Kingkiller Chronicle"?

When will George R. R. Martin's “The Winds of Winter” be released?

When, before 2040, will George R. R. Martin's "The Winds of Winter" be released?

Will George R. R. Martin publish the sixth novel in "A Song of Ice and Fire" before Patrick Rothfuss publishes the third novel in "The Kingkiller Chronicle"?

When will George R. R. Martin's “The Winds of Winter” be released?