Question

When will an agentized-LLM system like Auto-GPT be first reported to have been used to do significant real-world harm?

11 comments11

Total Forecasters43

Community Prediction2024-05-05

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My Prediction

community

lower 25%

median

upper 75%

>2026-12-30

...

2023-11-30 09:08

2024-05-05 20:52

2025-01-13 17:14

4.3%

Authors:

GregorVomScheidt NMorrison

Opened:

Closed:

Scheduled resolution:

AI Safety

Computing and Math

Artificial Intelligence

Artificial intelligence

Will a major cyberattack, virus, worm, etc. that uses autonomously self-replicating LLMs in some important way occur before January 1st, 2025?

Will a major cyberattack, virus, worm, etc. that uses LLMs in some important way occur before January 1st, 2025?

10%

Will an AI system be reported to have successfully blackmailed someone for >$1000 by EOY 2028?

80%

Comments

? comments

Authors:

GregorVomScheidt NMorrison

Opened:

Closed:

Scheduled resolution:

AI Safety

Computing and Math

Artificial Intelligence

Artificial intelligence

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Will a major cyberattack, virus, worm, etc. that uses autonomously self-replicating LLMs in some important way occur before January 1st, 2025?

Will a major cyberattack, virus, worm, etc. that uses LLMs in some important way occur before January 1st, 2025?

10%

Will an AI system be reported to have successfully blackmailed someone for >$1000 by EOY 2028?

80%

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When will an agentized-LLM system like Auto-GPT be first reported to have been used to do significant real-world harm?

Make a Prediction

Will a major cyberattack, virus, worm, etc. that uses autonomously self-replicating LLMs in some important way occur before January 1st, 2025?

Will a major cyberattack, virus, worm, etc. that uses LLMs in some important way occur before January 1st, 2025?

Will an AI system be reported to have successfully blackmailed someone for >$1000 by EOY 2028?

Comments

Will a major cyberattack, virus, worm, etc. that uses autonomously self-replicating LLMs in some important way occur before January 1st, 2025?

Will a major cyberattack, virus, worm, etc. that uses LLMs in some important way occur before January 1st, 2025?

Will an AI system be reported to have successfully blackmailed someone for >$1000 by EOY 2028?

Will a major cyberattack, virus, worm, etc. that uses autonomously self-replicating LLMs in some important way occur before January 1st, 2025?

Will a major cyberattack, virus, worm, etc. that uses LLMs in some important way occur before January 1st, 2025?

Will an AI system be reported to have successfully blackmailed someone for >$1000 by EOY 2028?

Will a major cyberattack, virus, worm, etc. that uses autonomously self-replicating LLMs in some important way occur before January 1st, 2025?

Will a major cyberattack, virus, worm, etc. that uses LLMs in some important way occur before January 1st, 2025?

Will an AI system be reported to have successfully blackmailed someone for >$1000 by EOY 2028?