Forecast 2025 With Future Perfect

Every year, Vox's Future Perfect team predicts what will happen in the year ahead. Metaculus is collaborating with Future Perfect writers like Dylan Matthews and Marina Bolotnikova to host their forecast questions so you can predict 2025 alongside them. Participate before January 1st when they publish their forecasts Vox.com.

Predict here — $2,500 in prizes

M

Group

Will the US restrict use of generative AI via API before 2026?

5
3
19 forecasters

Forecast Timeline

Total Forecasters 15

Make a Prediction

Restriction scopeMe
Deny ≥100 countries
4%
Deny some entities
35%
Deny ≤99 countries
12.23%
Deny all non-US, allow US or int'l licensing
7%
Deny all non-US, allow some local licensing
1%
Deny all, allow US or int'l licensing
1%
Deny all, secret or no new licenses
1%
Learn more about scores here.
Opened:
Closes:
Scheduled resolution:

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