Group

Will the US restrict use of generative AI via API before 2026?

22 forecasters

Total Forecasters 17

Deny some entities

Deny ≤99 countries

Deny all non-US, allow US or int'l licensing

Deny ≥100 countries

Deny all, allow US or int'l licensing

Deny all non-US, allow some local licensing

Restriction scope		My Prediction		Me
Deny all non-US, allow US or int'l licensing	3%

Deny some entities	33%

Deny ≤99 countries	6%

Deny ≥100 countries	1.5%

Deny all, allow US or int'l licensing	0.8%

Deny all non-US, allow some local licensing	0.5%

Deny all, secret or no new licenses	0.1%