🔭 The Bridgewater x Metaculus Forecasting Contest Goes Global — Feb 3

For the second year, Metaculus is teaming up with Bridgewater Associates to host a competition featuring $25k in prizes and potential opportunities with the asset management firm — and this year, forecasters from around the globe can compete.

Start here to register for the February 3rd competition, warm up on practice questions, and learn about the separate Open and Undergraduate leaderboards.

M

conditional
condition

Debt Limit Increased or Suspended in 2023?

Resolved :Yes
5 forecasters
if yes
if no

Date of Next US Financial Crisis

2027-04-03

Date of Next US Financial Crisis

2026-06-24
Resolved :Annulled2026-06-24
2
0

Make a Prediction

Debt Limit Increased or Suspended in 2023?

Date of Next US Financial Crisis

PDF

CDF

The question "Will the statutory debt limit be increased or suspended for at least 30 days in the United States before 2024?" has closed, so these conditionals are closed for forecasting. They will resolve when the question "When will the next great financial crisis in the US occur?" resolves.
My Prediction
community
lower 25%
median
upper 75%
>2099-12-29
...
...
...
...
2024-11-12 09:07
2027-04-03 21:56
2031-01-08 14:51
0.1%
Learn more about scores here.

Forecast Timeline

Authors:
NMorrison
Opened:
Closed:
Scheduled resolution:
Economy & Business
2023 Leaderboard
Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis
Social Security Trust Fund
US Department of the Treasury
United States debt-ceiling crisis of 2011
St. Louis Fed Financial Stress Index
United States
Financial crisis of 2007–08
Great Recession

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