🔭 The Bridgewater x Metaculus Forecasting Contest Goes Global — Feb 3

For the second year, Metaculus is teaming up with Bridgewater Associates to host a competition featuring $25k in prizes and potential opportunities with the asset management firm — and this year, forecasters from around the globe can compete.

Start here to register for the February 3rd competition, warm up on practice questions, and learn about the separate Open and Undergraduate leaderboards.

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conditional
condition

Agentized LLM Improves self by July 1, 2023?

Resolved :No
15 forecasters
if yes
if no

When will agentized-LLMs first cause harm?

2024-03-09
Resolved :Annulled2024-03-09

When will agentized-LLMs first cause harm?

2024-05-11
4
0

Make a Prediction

Agentized LLM Improves self by July 1, 2023?

When will agentized-LLMs first cause harm?

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This question is closed for predictions, and is waiting to be resolved
My Prediction
community
lower 25%
median
upper 75%
>2026-12-30
...
...
...
...
2023-10-11 22:44
2024-03-09 22:18
2024-10-19 00:39
0.7%
Learn more about scores here.

Forecast Timeline

Authors:
NMorrison
Opened:
Closed:
Scheduled resolution:
Computing and Math
Artificial Intelligence
2023 Leaderboard
OpenAI
Anthropic

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