đź“– The ACX 2025 Prediction Contest Is Open!

The Astral Codex Ten Prediction Contest is back with an expanded $10,000 prize pool! Test your forecasting skills across geopolitics, technology, economics, and more with questions curated by Scott Alexander. Make your predictions by January 31 to compete.

🔭 The Bridgewater x Metaculus Forecasting Contest Goes Global — Feb 3

For the second year, Metaculus is teaming up with Bridgewater Associates to host a competition featuring $25k in prizes and potential opportunities with the asset management firm — and this year, forecasters from around the globe can compete.

Start here to register for the February 3rd competition, warm up on practice questions, and learn about the separate Open and Undergraduate leaderboards.

M

Group

Will the US restrict transfer of trained AI models before 2026?

3
2
13 forecasters

Forecast Timeline

Total Forecasters 10

Make a Prediction

Restriction scopeMe
Deny all non-US, allow some local licensing
5%
Deny some entities
89%
Deny ≤99 countries
85%
Deny ≥100 countries
10%
Deny all non-US, allow US or int'l licensing
5%
Deny all, allow US or int'l licensing
5%
Deny all, secret or no new licenses
3%
Authors:
puffymistPeterWildeforddschwarzwill_aldred
Opened:
Closes:
Scheduled resolution:
Regulation of AI
Artificial Intelligence
2021-2025 Leaderboard
Export Administration Regulations
China
United States
Member states of the United Nations
United Nations peacekeeping

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