MetaculusM

conditional

NPVIC Reaches Threshold Before 2030?

if yes

if no

Second US Civil War Before 2031

Second US Civil War Before 2031

1

Make a Prediction

NPVIC Reaches Threshold Before 2030?	Second US Civil War Before 2031
if yes	My Prediction: —
if no	My Prediction: —

50%

community: 3%

Forecast Timeline

if Yes

if No

Authors:

Opened:

May 28, 2023

Closes:

Jan 1, 2031

Scheduled resolution:

Jan 2, 2031

Insurrection Act

National Popular Vote Interstate Compact

2020 US presidential election

Comments

? comments

Authors:

Opened:

May 28, 2023

Closes:

Jan 1, 2031

Scheduled resolution:

Jan 2, 2031

Insurrection Act

National Popular Vote Interstate Compact

2020 US presidential election