Forecast 2025 With Future Perfect

Every year, Vox's Future Perfect team predicts what will happen in the year ahead. Metaculus is collaborating with Future Perfect writers like Dylan Matthews and Marina Bolotnikova to host their forecast questions so you can predict 2025 alongside them. Participate before January 1st when they publish their forecasts Vox.com.

Predict here — $2,500 in prizes

MetaculusM

conditional

NPVIC Reaches Threshold Before 2030?

if yes

if no

Second US Civil War Before 2031

Second US Civil War Before 2031

1

Make a Prediction

NPVIC Reaches Threshold Before 2030?	Second US Civil War Before 2031
if yes	My Prediction: —
if no	My Prediction: —

50%

community: 3%

Learn more about scores here.

Forecast Timeline

if Yes

if No

Authors:

Opened:

Closes:

Scheduled resolution:

National Popular Vote Interstate Compact

Insurrection Act

2020 US presidential election

Comments

? comments

Authors:

Opened:

Closes:

Scheduled resolution:

National Popular Vote Interstate Compact

Insurrection Act

2020 US presidential election