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Start here to register for the February 3rd competition, warm up on practice questions, and learn about the separate Open and Undergraduate leaderboards.

M

Group

Will the following countries experience a civil war before 2036?

31
210
225 forecasters

Forecast Timeline

Make a Prediction

CountryMe
Sudan
yes
Niger
67%
Haiti
62%
Democratic Republic of Congo
61%
Afghanistan
55.1%
Ethiopia
53%
Libya
annulled
Iraq
42%
Burkina Faso
40%
Venezuela
40%
Lebanon
37%
Angola
23%
Nigeria
21.7%
Russia
20%
Iran
20%
Sri Lanka
18%
Pakistan
15%
Zimbabwe
15%
Egypt
13%
Sierra Leone
10%
Colombia
10%
South Africa
9%
El Salvador
9%
Bosnia and Herzegovina
8%
Kenya
7.5%
North Korea
5%
Turkey
5%
Cuba
5%
Ecuador
5%
China
2.5%
Kazakhstan
2.5%
Mexico
2%
Brazil
2%
India
2%
United States
2%
Israel
2%
Phillipines
2%
Serbia
2%
Argentina
1.5%
Thailand
1.5%
Saudi Arabia
1%
France
1%
Hungary
1%
United Kingdom
1%
Greece
1%
Jamaica
1%
Romania
1%
Latvia
1%
Vietnam
1%
Morocco
1%
Indonesia
1%
Germany
1%
Canada
0.4%
Japan
0.3%
Australia
0.3%
Resolved Nov 20, 2023
Community Baseline Score
2.8
Community Peer Score
0.2
Authors:
NMorrisonJoker
Opened:
Closes:
Scheduled resolution:
Geopolitics
Mexico
Serbia
Morocco
Philippines
United Kingdom
Latvia
Iraq
Lebanon
El Salvador
Philippines–United States relations

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