M

Group

Will the following countries experience a civil war before 2036?

30
208
215 forecasters

Forecast Timeline

Make a Prediction

CandidatesMe
Sudan
yes
Niger
66%
Haiti
60%
Democratic Republic of Congo
60%
Ethiopia
54%
Afghanistan
51%
Libya
annulled
Iraq
42%
Burkina Faso
40%
Venezuela
40%
Lebanon
35%
Nigeria
23%
Angola
23%
Russia
20%
Sri Lanka
17.4%
Iran
15.9%
Pakistan
15%
Zimbabwe
15%
Egypt
13%
Sierra Leone
10%
Colombia
10%
South Africa
9%
El Salvador
9%
Bosnia and Herzegovina
8%
Kenya
7.5%
Turkey
5%
Ecuador
5%
North Korea
4%
Cuba
4%
United States
3%
Kazakhstan
2.5%
Mexico
2%
India
2%
China
2%
Israel
2%
Phillipines
2%
Serbia
2%
Argentina
1.5%
Saudi Arabia
1%
Brazil
1%
France
1%
Hungary
1%
Greece
1%
Jamaica
1%
Romania
1%
Latvia
1%
Thailand
1%
Vietnam
1%
Morocco
1%
Indonesia
1%
United Kingdom
0.7%
Canada
0.3%
Germany
0.3%
Japan
0.1%
Australia
0.1%
Resolved Nov 20, 2023
Community Baseline Score
2.8
Community Peer Score
0.2

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