Question

Will a US court fine, or order a company to pay to claimants, >=$100M because of how they used data to train a large AI model before 2026?

7 comments7

Total Forecasters59

Community Prediction10% (6.1% - 20%)

Make a Prediction

50%

community: 10%

Authors:

dschwarz will_aldred

Opened:

Closes:

Scheduled resolution:

Regulation of AI

Artificial Intelligence

2021-2025 Leaderboard

GitHub

San Francisco

United States

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Forbes•Dec 16, 2024

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What will be the outcome of the New York Times' copyright lawsuit against OpenAI and Microsoft?

Will the US or California require licenses to train large AI models before 2026?

10%

Before 2028, will powerful open-source AI be regulated more tightly than closed-source AI, through newly-enacted US law?

30%

Comments

? comments

Authors:

dschwarz will_aldred

Opened:

Closes:

Scheduled resolution:

Regulation of AI

Artificial Intelligence

2021-2025 Leaderboard

GitHub

San Francisco

United States

It sure looks like OpenAI trained Sora on game content — and legal experts say that could be a problem

TechCrunch•Dec 13, 2024

She didn’t get an apartment because of an AI-generated score – and sued to help others avoid the same fate

Guardian•Dec 15, 2024

In 2025 Gen AI Will Slow (Sundar Pichai) Or Sprint (Sam Altman)

Forbes•Dec 16, 2024

Learn more about Metaculus NewsMatch

What will be the outcome of the New York Times' copyright lawsuit against OpenAI and Microsoft?

Will the US or California require licenses to train large AI models before 2026?

10%

Before 2028, will powerful open-source AI be regulated more tightly than closed-source AI, through newly-enacted US law?

30%

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Will a US court fine, or order a company to pay to claimants, >=$100M because of how they used data to train a large AI model before 2026?

Make a Prediction

What will be the outcome of the New York Times' copyright lawsuit against OpenAI and Microsoft?

Will the US or California require licenses to train large AI models before 2026?

Before 2028, will powerful open-source AI be regulated more tightly than closed-source AI, through newly-enacted US law?

Comments

What will be the outcome of the New York Times' copyright lawsuit against OpenAI and Microsoft?

Will the US or California require licenses to train large AI models before 2026?

Before 2028, will powerful open-source AI be regulated more tightly than closed-source AI, through newly-enacted US law?

What will be the outcome of the New York Times' copyright lawsuit against OpenAI and Microsoft?

Will the US or California require licenses to train large AI models before 2026?

Before 2028, will powerful open-source AI be regulated more tightly than closed-source AI, through newly-enacted US law?

What will be the outcome of the New York Times' copyright lawsuit against OpenAI and Microsoft?

Will the US or California require licenses to train large AI models before 2026?

Before 2028, will powerful open-source AI be regulated more tightly than closed-source AI, through newly-enacted US law?