Question

How many months after a Western actor trains a 1e26 FLOP model (~5x GPT-4) will a Chinese actor do so?

4 comments4

Total Forecasters12

Community Prediction11.7 (5.16 - 16.9)

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weight:

My Prediction

community

<-12

lower 25%

median

upper 75%

>60

...

1.3%

5.156

11.69

16.89

0.6%

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Authors:

will_aldred Lawrence

Opened:

Closes:

Scheduled resolution:

AI in China

Computing and Math

Artificial Intelligence

2021-2025 Leaderboard

Future of Life Institute

AI 'godfather' Geoffrey Hinton says AI will one day unite nations against a common existential threat

Business Insider•Dec 13, 2024

The limits of intelligence — Why AI advancement could be slowing down

CNBC•Dec 13, 2024

In 2025 Gen AI Will Slow (Sundar Pichai) Or Sprint (Sam Altman)

Forbes•Dec 16, 2024

Learn more about Metaculus NewsMatch

When will a Chinese entity develop a model surpassing GPT-4's few-shot performance on MMLU?

2024-12-10

When will a Chinese organization train a large model on GPUs that deliver more than 1500 TFLOPs@FP16?

2024-12-15

Will China have the largest AI model in 2035? (Resolve "yes" in ambiguous cases)

Comments

? comments

Authors:

will_aldred Lawrence

Opened:

Closes:

Scheduled resolution:

AI in China

Computing and Math

Artificial Intelligence

2021-2025 Leaderboard

Future of Life Institute

AI 'godfather' Geoffrey Hinton says AI will one day unite nations against a common existential threat

Business Insider•Dec 13, 2024

The limits of intelligence — Why AI advancement could be slowing down

CNBC•Dec 13, 2024

In 2025 Gen AI Will Slow (Sundar Pichai) Or Sprint (Sam Altman)

Forbes•Dec 16, 2024

Learn more about Metaculus NewsMatch

When will a Chinese entity develop a model surpassing GPT-4's few-shot performance on MMLU?

2024-12-10

When will a Chinese organization train a large model on GPUs that deliver more than 1500 TFLOPs@FP16?

2024-12-15

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How many months after a Western actor trains a 1e26 FLOP model (~5x GPT-4) will a Chinese actor do so?

Make a Prediction

When will a Chinese entity develop a model surpassing GPT-4's few-shot performance on MMLU?

When will a Chinese organization train a large model on GPUs that deliver more than 1500 TFLOPs@FP16?

Will China have the largest AI model in 2035? (Resolve "yes" in ambiguous cases)

Comments

When will a Chinese entity develop a model surpassing GPT-4's few-shot performance on MMLU?

When will a Chinese organization train a large model on GPUs that deliver more than 1500 TFLOPs@FP16?

Will China have the largest AI model in 2035? (Resolve "yes" in ambiguous cases)

When will a Chinese entity develop a model surpassing GPT-4's few-shot performance on MMLU?

When will a Chinese organization train a large model on GPUs that deliver more than 1500 TFLOPs@FP16?

Will China have the largest AI model in 2035? (Resolve "yes" in ambiguous cases)

When will a Chinese entity develop a model surpassing GPT-4's few-shot performance on MMLU?

When will a Chinese organization train a large model on GPUs that deliver more than 1500 TFLOPs@FP16?

Will China have the largest AI model in 2035? (Resolve "yes" in ambiguous cases)