Question

Will OpenAI announce that it has solved the core technical challenges of superintelligence alignment by June 30, 2027?

40 comments40

Total Forecasters199

Community Prediction2%

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50%

community: 2%

median 2.0%mean 4.2%

Authors:

NMorrison

Opened:

Closes:

Scheduled resolution:

AI Safety

Computing and Math

Artificial Intelligence

OpenAI solves alignment before June 30 2027? → Human Extinction by 2100

Next OpenAI CEO (Sam Altman) → OpenAI solves alignment before June 30 2027?

Will Ilya Sutskever still lead OpenAI’s Superalignment team at the end of 2024?

0.3%

Comments

? comments

Authors:

NMorrison

Opened:

Closes:

Scheduled resolution:

AI Safety

Computing and Math

Artificial Intelligence

OpenAI’s take on AI agents could come in January

TechCrunch•Nov 14, 2024

OpenAI reportedly plans to launch an AI agent early next year

Verge•Nov 14, 2024

OpenAI Nears Launch of AI Agent Tool to Automate Tasks for Users

•Nov 14, 2024

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OpenAI solves alignment before June 30 2027? → Human Extinction by 2100

Next OpenAI CEO (Sam Altman) → OpenAI solves alignment before June 30 2027?

Will Ilya Sutskever still lead OpenAI’s Superalignment team at the end of 2024?

0.3%