Question

Will Unidentified Anomalous Phenomena have an ontologically-shocking explanation?

13 comments13

Total Forecasters91

Community Prediction

(0.1% - 5%)

Make a Prediction

50%

community: 1%

Authors:

NMorrison

Opened:

Aug 2, 2023

Closes:

Jul 21, 2028

Scheduled resolution:

Jul 22, 2028

Spot Scoring Time:

Aug 4, 2023

Technology

Astronomy

Physics

Director of National Intelligence

Unidentified flying object

Eliezer Yudkowsky

Folklore

2018 US House of Representatives elections

The Man Out to Prove How Dumb AI Still Is

Atlantic•Apr 4, 2025

Xenolinguistics—the Study of Alien Languages—Helps to Reveal Why All Beings Communicate

Scientific American•Apr 4, 2025

AI 'Godfather' Yann LeCun: LLMs Are Nearing the End, but Better AI Is Coming

Newsweek•Apr 3, 2025

Learn more about Metaculus NewsMatch

Will the world remain "normal" through 2030, according to specified criteria?

50%

Will there be scientifically accepted evidence of the presence of a non-human intelligence (NHI) on Earth by 2030?

Will quantum effects be widely accepted as responsible for consciousness before 2075?

Comments

? comments

Authors:

NMorrison

Opened:

Aug 2, 2023

Closes:

Jul 21, 2028

Scheduled resolution:

Jul 22, 2028

Spot Scoring Time:

Aug 4, 2023

Technology

Astronomy

Physics

Director of National Intelligence

Unidentified flying object

Eliezer Yudkowsky

Folklore

2018 US House of Representatives elections

The Man Out to Prove How Dumb AI Still Is

Atlantic•Apr 4, 2025

Xenolinguistics—the Study of Alien Languages—Helps to Reveal Why All Beings Communicate

Scientific American•Apr 4, 2025

AI 'Godfather' Yann LeCun: LLMs Are Nearing the End, but Better AI Is Coming

Newsweek•Apr 3, 2025

Learn more about Metaculus NewsMatch

Will the world remain "normal" through 2030, according to specified criteria?

50%

MetaculusM

Will Unidentified Anomalous Phenomena have an ontologically-shocking explanation?

Make a Prediction

Will the world remain "normal" through 2030, according to specified criteria?

Will there be scientifically accepted evidence of the presence of a non-human intelligence (NHI) on Earth by 2030?

Will quantum effects be widely accepted as responsible for consciousness before 2075?

Comments

Will the world remain "normal" through 2030, according to specified criteria?

Will there be scientifically accepted evidence of the presence of a non-human intelligence (NHI) on Earth by 2030?

Will quantum effects be widely accepted as responsible for consciousness before 2075?

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