Question

When will the novel Luna avocado strain capture 5% of the US avocado market?

Total Forecasters4

Community Prediction2040-07-01 (2037-06-26 - 2040-07-01)

Make a Prediction

PDF

CDF

weight:

	lower 25%	median	upper 75%	>2040-07-01
community	Jun 2037	>Jul 2040	>Jul 2040	56.9%
My Prediction	—	—	—	—

Quartiles	community	My Prediction
lower 25%	Jun 2037	—
median	>Jul 2040	—
upper 75%	>Jul 2040	—
Upper bound
>2040-07-01	56.9%	—

Authors:

j.m.

Opened:

Aug 16, 2023

Closes:

Jun 30, 2040

Scheduled resolution:

Jul 2, 2040

University of California, Riverside

Hoping the US egg crisis will end soon? Australia's example suggests it won't be over easy.

Business Insider•Feb 12, 2025

Are consumers stockpiling eggs when they can find them? What to know about egg shortage

USA Today•Feb 16, 2025

Your avocado toast with eggs may become a breakfast luxury rather than a tasty staple

Business Insider•Feb 17, 2025

Learn more about Metaculus NewsMatch

Will the Cavendish account for less than 50% of banana exports worldwide before 2035?

48%

Will US consumers be unable to purchase the Cavendish banana at major US grocery chains on December 31, 2029?

15%

Will alternative protein have a market share above 25% of that of meat before 2035?

Comments

? comments