🔭 The Bridgewater x Metaculus Forecasting Contest Goes Global — Feb 3

For the second year, Metaculus is teaming up with Bridgewater Associates to host a competition featuring $25k in prizes and potential opportunities with the asset management firm — and this year, forecasters from around the globe can compete.

Start here to register for the February 3rd competition, warm up on practice questions, and learn about the separate Open and Undergraduate leaderboards.

M

Group

Which of these nations will experience a successful coup d'etat before 2040?

26
81
132 forecasters

Forecast Timeline

Total Forecasters 28

Make a Prediction

CountryMe
Senegal
8%
Syria
90%
Haiti
67%
Libya
63%
Afghanistan
61%
Mali
60%
Venezuela
50%
Democratic Republic of Congo
50%
Thailand
41%
Ethiopia
41%
Chad
40%
Iraq
31%
Egypt
31%
Belarus
31%
Iran
30%
Pakistan
30%
Nigeria
28%
Russia
25%
Ukraine
25%
Uganda
25%
Bolivia
25%
Turkey
20%
Ecuador
20%
Nicaragua
20%
Togo
20%
Cote d'Ivoire
17%
Armenia
15%
Angola
15%
Mauritania
14%
Peru
13%
North Korea
10%
Saudi Arabia
10%
Azerbaijan
10%
Philippines
10%
El Salvador
10%
Guatemala
10%
Cuba
10%
Algeria
10%
Ghana
10%
Brazil
7%
Kenya
7%
Turkmenistan
7%
Indonesia
6%
Republic of China (Taiwan)
5%
Mexico
5%
Argentina
5%
Qatar
5%
South Africa
5%
Serbia
5%
Malaysia
5%
Vietnam
5%
Israel
5%
Greece
3%
Chile
3%
People's Republic of China
2%
South Korea
2%
India
2%
Hungary
2%
United States
1.5%
United Kingdom
1%
Germany
1%
France
1%
Japan
1%
Australia
1%
Spain
1%
United Arab Emirates
1%
Romania
1%
Italy
1%
Sweden
1%
Finland
1%
Netherlands
1%
Poland
1%
Slovakia
1%
Learn more about scores here.
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Scheduled resolution:

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