Question

What will the Metaculus Community Prediction bias on the next 20 AI benchmark questions be?

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Total Forecasters9

Community Prediction4.99e-1

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My Prediction

community

lower 25%

median

upper 75%

...

4.215e-1

4.988e-1

5.76e-1

Authors:

peter_m

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Closed:

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Metaculus

Computing and Math

Artificial Intelligence

Probability integral transform

Forecasting AI Progress — Discussion

How correlated will progress be across subfields of AI as determined by Metaculus between 2021 to 2025?

1.56e-1

How much better will the Metaculus Prediction be on continuous questions be, relative to the Community Prediction, over the 365-day period following its next update?

1.01

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