Question

What will the Metaculus Community Prediction bias on the next 20 AI benchmark questions be?

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Total Forecasters9

Community Prediction0.499 (0.421 - 0.576)

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My Prediction

community

lower 25%

median

upper 75%

...

0.4215

0.4988

0.576

Authors:

peter_m

Opened:

Aug 8, 2023

Closed:

Dec 31, 2023

Scheduled resolution:

Dec 31, 2027

Metaculus

Computing and Math

Artificial Intelligence

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Forecasting AI Progress — Discussion

What will be the best normalized score achieved on the original 7 RE-Bench tasks by December 31st 2025?

1.16

How much better will the Metaculus Prediction be on continuous questions be, relative to the Community Prediction, over the 365-day period following its next update?

1.01

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