Question
Question
Will a lead-apatite class superconductor with a warm Tc be found before 2025?
Total Forecasters42
Community Prediction1%
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median 1.0%mean 3.9%
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Will any peer-reviewed replication attempt before 2025 confirm the discovery of room-temperature and ambient-pressure superconductivity in LK-99?
0.2%
Will a room-temperature and ambient-pressure superconductor be used in a commercial application before 2025?
0.1%
Will a room-temperature and ambient-pressure superconductor be used in a commercial application before 2030?
1%
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Authors:
Opened:
Closes:
Scheduled resolution:
Learn more about Metaculus NewsMatch
Will any peer-reviewed replication attempt before 2025 confirm the discovery of room-temperature and ambient-pressure superconductivity in LK-99?
0.2%
Will a room-temperature and ambient-pressure superconductor be used in a commercial application before 2025?
0.1%
Will a room-temperature and ambient-pressure superconductor be used in a commercial application before 2030?
1%