Question

Will 10-day out weather forecasting reach 60% accuracy before 2029?

21 comments21

Total Forecasters69

Community Prediction80%

Make a Prediction

community: 80%

median 80.0%mean 74.2%

Authors:

exoplanet_emma

Opened:

Closes:

Scheduled resolution:

Space Technology & Climate

Environment & Climate

European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts

Will an AI model be developed before 2030 that can accurately predict local weather patterns up to 6 months in advance?

Will National Hurricane Center 48 hour annual average track error for Atlantic Basin tropical storms and hurricanes be 30 nautical miles or less for any year before 2031?

50%

Predict 0.1%—99.9% With Decimal Forecasting

Comments

? comments

Authors:

exoplanet_emma

Opened:

Closes:

Scheduled resolution:

Space Technology & Climate

Environment & Climate

European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts

Meteorologists could be climate change heroes by relaying its urgency to the public

Guardian•Oct 22, 2024

NOAA Map Reveals US Set for Unusually Warm Winter

Newsweek•Oct 22, 2024

Prediction Markets: How Reliable Are They Really? (Part 1)

Forbes•Oct 24, 2024

Learn more about Metaculus NewsMatch

Will an AI model be developed before 2030 that can accurately predict local weather patterns up to 6 months in advance?

Will National Hurricane Center 48 hour annual average track error for Atlantic Basin tropical storms and hurricanes be 30 nautical miles or less for any year before 2031?

50%