Question
Will 10-day out weather forecasting reach 60% accuracy before 2029?
Total Forecasters70
Community Prediction87% (80% - 92%)
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Will an AI model be developed before 2030 that can accurately predict local weather patterns up to 6 months in advance?
1%
Will National Hurricane Center 48 hour annual average track error for Atlantic Basin tropical storms and hurricanes be 30 nautical miles or less for any year before 2031?
50%
When Will an AI be Amongst the Best Forecasters on Metaculus
2026-06-06
Comments
? comments
Authors:
Opened:
Closes:
Scheduled resolution:
Will an AI model be developed before 2030 that can accurately predict local weather patterns up to 6 months in advance?
1%
Will National Hurricane Center 48 hour annual average track error for Atlantic Basin tropical storms and hurricanes be 30 nautical miles or less for any year before 2031?
50%
When Will an AI be Amongst the Best Forecasters on Metaculus
2026-06-06