Question

Will 10-day out weather forecasting reach 60% accuracy before 2029?

21 comments21

Total Forecasters69

Community Prediction80%

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50%

community: 80%

median 80.0%mean 74.7%

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exoplanet_emma

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Space Technology & Climate

Environment & Climate

European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts

2024 'virtually certain' to be warmest year on record, scientists say

USA Today•Nov 11, 2024

Mission Space launches next quarter to provide real-time space weather forecasts

TechCrunch•Nov 15, 2024

November Hurricane Could Shake Stock Market And Florida

Forbes•Nov 15, 2024

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Will an AI model be developed before 2030 that can accurately predict local weather patterns up to 6 months in advance?

Will National Hurricane Center 48 hour annual average track error for Atlantic Basin tropical storms and hurricanes be 30 nautical miles or less for any year before 2031?

50%

Predict 0.1%—99.9% With Decimal Forecasting

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Authors:

exoplanet_emma

Opened:

Closes:

Scheduled resolution:

Space Technology & Climate

Environment & Climate

European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts

2024 'virtually certain' to be warmest year on record, scientists say

USA Today•Nov 11, 2024

Mission Space launches next quarter to provide real-time space weather forecasts

TechCrunch•Nov 15, 2024

November Hurricane Could Shake Stock Market And Florida

Forbes•Nov 15, 2024

Learn more about Metaculus NewsMatch

Will an AI model be developed before 2030 that can accurately predict local weather patterns up to 6 months in advance?

Will National Hurricane Center 48 hour annual average track error for Atlantic Basin tropical storms and hurricanes be 30 nautical miles or less for any year before 2031?

50%