Question

Will Rob Long believe there is conscious AI before 2030?

-1

3 comments3

Total Forecasters23

Community Prediction51% (26% - 67%)

Make a Prediction

50%

community: 51%

Authors:

will_aldred

Opened:

Nov 25, 2023

Closes:

Jan 1, 2030

Scheduled resolution:

Jan 2, 2030

AI Demonstrations

AGI Outcomes

Computing and Math

Artificial Intelligence

Computational theory of mind

80,000 Hours

OpenAI boss Sam Altman says human-level intelligence is coming – and it won’t be fair

Independent•Feb 12, 2025

How Can We Know That an Animal, or AI, Is Conscious?

Psychology Today•Feb 13, 2025

Experts share chilling warning over DeepSeek as it sparks 'Lord Of the Rings race' for superhuman intelligence

Daily Mail•Feb 15, 2025

Learn more about Metaculus NewsMatch

Will David Chalmers believe there is conscious AI before 2030?

57%

Will AI be given legal rights or be protected from abuse anywhere in the United States before 2035?

52%

Will a major AI lab claim in 2025 that they have developed AGI?

17%

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