Question

Will Ukraine lose non-Crimean territory by February 2029, compared to 2013?

14 comments14

Total Forecasters95

Community Prediction99% (93% - 99.9%)

Make a Prediction

50%

community: 99%

Authors:

BrunoParga

Opened:

Closes:

Scheduled resolution:

Autonomous Republic of Crimea

Zaporizhia

Annexation of Crimea by the Russian Federation

Donald Trump

Ukraine

Ukraine Recaptured Territory in Two Key Battlefronts: ISW

Newsweek•Jan 20, 2025

Will US President-elect Trump end the Russia-Ukraine war in 100 days?

Al Jazeera•Jan 20, 2025

Kursk Map Shows Russia's Rapid Advances in Ukraine-Held Territory

Newsweek•Jan 21, 2025

Learn more about Metaculus NewsMatch

Will Ukraine have de-facto control over the Donetsk and Luhansk Oblasts before January 1st, 2030?

Will Russia have significantly expanded its controlled territory in Ukraine on January 1, 2026?

20%

Will Russia repel Ukrainian forces from the Kursk Region before June 30, 2025?

40%

Comments

? comments

Authors:

BrunoParga

Opened:

Closes:

Scheduled resolution:

Autonomous Republic of Crimea

Zaporizhia

Annexation of Crimea by the Russian Federation

Donald Trump

Ukraine

Ukraine Recaptured Territory in Two Key Battlefronts: ISW

Newsweek•Jan 20, 2025

Will US President-elect Trump end the Russia-Ukraine war in 100 days?

Al Jazeera•Jan 20, 2025

Kursk Map Shows Russia's Rapid Advances in Ukraine-Held Territory

Newsweek•Jan 21, 2025

Learn more about Metaculus NewsMatch

Will Ukraine have de-facto control over the Donetsk and Luhansk Oblasts before January 1st, 2030?

Will Russia have significantly expanded its controlled territory in Ukraine on January 1, 2026?

20%

Will Russia repel Ukrainian forces from the Kursk Region before June 30, 2025?

40%