Question

Will an LLM pass an ARA evaluation before 2025?

15 comments15

Total Forecasters36

Community Prediction2%

Make a Prediction

50%

community: 2%

median 2.0%mean 7.0%

Authors:

jleibowich kokotajlod will_aldred

Opened:

Closes:

Scheduled resolution:

Future of AI

AI Safety

Computing and Math

Artificial Intelligence

OpenAI is reportedly struggling to improve its next big AI model. It's a warning for the entire AI industry.

Business Insider•Nov 12, 2024

Line go up.

Verge•Nov 13, 2024

Super Intelligent AI Might Be Online by 2025. Not Terrified? You Should Be

Red State•Nov 13, 2024

Learn more about Metaculus NewsMatch

LLM passes ARA before 2025? → LLM training paused for dangerous capability? (OpenAI)

Will the highest Elo LLM on Chatbot Arena be non-proprietary during 2024?

0.1%

Will OpenAI release an LLM product or API that hallucinates 5x less than GPT-4 did when it was released, by June 30, 2025?

80%

Comments

? comments

Authors:

jleibowich kokotajlod will_aldred

Opened:

Closes:

Scheduled resolution:

Future of AI

AI Safety

Computing and Math

Artificial Intelligence

OpenAI is reportedly struggling to improve its next big AI model. It's a warning for the entire AI industry.

Business Insider•Nov 12, 2024

Line go up.

Verge•Nov 13, 2024

Super Intelligent AI Might Be Online by 2025. Not Terrified? You Should Be

Red State•Nov 13, 2024

Learn more about Metaculus NewsMatch

LLM passes ARA before 2025? → LLM training paused for dangerous capability? (OpenAI)

Will the highest Elo LLM on Chatbot Arena be non-proprietary during 2024?

0.1%

Will OpenAI release an LLM product or API that hallucinates 5x less than GPT-4 did when it was released, by June 30, 2025?

80%