Group

Will there be a frontier open-source AI model on January 1 of the following years?

21 comments21

78 forecasters

Forecast Timeline

Total Forecasters 69

2028

2026

2025

2024

Make a Prediction

Year		My Prediction		Me
2025	20%

2028	30%

2026	25%

2024	no

Authors:

RyanBeck will_aldred NMorrison

Opened:

Closes:

Scheduled resolution:

AI Demonstrations

Effective Institutions Project

Computing and Math

Artificial Intelligence

Game theory

Elo rating system

On January 1, 2025, which frontier AI lab will have a publicly available model with the highest score on the MMLU benchmark?

Will the highest Elo LLM on Chatbot Arena be non-proprietary during 2024?

0.1%

On December 31st, 2024, which organization will have the most intelligent publicly available AI model as judged by members of the Samotsvety forecasting group?

Comments

? comments

Authors:

RyanBeck will_aldred NMorrison

Opened:

Closes:

Scheduled resolution:

AI Demonstrations

Effective Institutions Project

Computing and Math

Artificial Intelligence

Game theory

Elo rating system

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On January 1, 2025, which frontier AI lab will have a publicly available model with the highest score on the MMLU benchmark?

Will the highest Elo LLM on Chatbot Arena be non-proprietary during 2024?

0.1%

On December 31st, 2024, which organization will have the most intelligent publicly available AI model as judged by members of the Samotsvety forecasting group?