📖 The ACX 2025 Prediction Contest Is Open!

The Astral Codex Ten Prediction Contest is back with an expanded $10,000 prize pool! Test your forecasting skills across geopolitics, technology, economics, and more with questions curated by Scott Alexander. Make your predictions by January 31 to compete.

🔭 The Bridgewater x Metaculus Forecasting Contest Goes Global — Feb 3

For the second year, Metaculus is teaming up with Bridgewater Associates to host a competition featuring $25k in prizes and potential opportunities with the asset management firm — and this year, forecasters from around the globe can compete.

Start here to register for the February 3rd competition, warm up on practice questions, and learn about the separate Open and Undergraduate leaderboards.

M

Group

Will there be a frontier open-source AI model on January 1 of the following years?

10
25
85 forecasters

Forecast Timeline

Make a Prediction

YearMe
2028
28%
2026
24%
2025
14%
2024
no
Authors:
RyanBeckwill_aldredNMorrison
Opened:
Closes:
Scheduled resolution:
AI Demonstrations
Effective Institutions Project
Computing and Math
Artificial Intelligence
2023 Leaderboard
2021-2025 Leaderboard
Game theory
Elo rating system

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