Group

Will there be a frontier open-source AI model on January 1 of the following years?

22 comments22

79 forecasters

Forecast Timeline

2028

2026

2025

2024

Make a Prediction

Year		My Prediction		Me
2028	30%

2026	25%

2025	14%

2024	no

Learn more about scores here.

Authors:

RyanBeck will_aldred NMorrison

Opened:

Closes:

Scheduled resolution:

AI Demonstrations

Effective Institutions Project

Computing and Math

Artificial Intelligence

2023 Leaderboard

2021-2025 Leaderboard

Game theory

Elo rating system

Inside the launch — and future — of ChatGPT

Verge•Dec 13, 2024

The limits of intelligence — Why AI advancement could be slowing down

CNBC•Dec 13, 2024

‘Reasoning’ AI models have become a trend, for better or worse

TechCrunch•Dec 14, 2024

Learn more about Metaculus NewsMatch

On January 1, 2025, which frontier AI lab will have a publicly available model with the highest score on the MMLU benchmark?

Will the highest Elo LLM on Chatbot Arena be non-proprietary during 2024?

0.1%

On December 31st, 2024, which organization will have the most intelligent publicly available AI model as judged by members of the Samotsvety forecasting group?

Comments

? comments

Authors:

RyanBeck will_aldred NMorrison

Opened:

Closes:

Scheduled resolution:

AI Demonstrations

Effective Institutions Project

Computing and Math

Artificial Intelligence

2023 Leaderboard

2021-2025 Leaderboard

Game theory

Elo rating system

Inside the launch — and future — of ChatGPT

Verge•Dec 13, 2024

The limits of intelligence — Why AI advancement could be slowing down

CNBC•Dec 13, 2024

‘Reasoning’ AI models have become a trend, for better or worse

TechCrunch•Dec 14, 2024

Learn more about Metaculus NewsMatch

On January 1, 2025, which frontier AI lab will have a publicly available model with the highest score on the MMLU benchmark?

Will the highest Elo LLM on Chatbot Arena be non-proprietary during 2024?

0.1%

On December 31st, 2024, which organization will have the most intelligent publicly available AI model as judged by members of the Samotsvety forecasting group?

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Will there be a frontier open-source AI model on January 1 of the following years?

Forecast Timeline

Make a Prediction

On January 1, 2025, which frontier AI lab will have a publicly available model with the highest score on the MMLU benchmark?

Will the highest Elo LLM on Chatbot Arena be non-proprietary during 2024?

On December 31st, 2024, which organization will have the most intelligent publicly available AI model as judged by members of the Samotsvety forecasting group?

Comments

On January 1, 2025, which frontier AI lab will have a publicly available model with the highest score on the MMLU benchmark?

Will the highest Elo LLM on Chatbot Arena be non-proprietary during 2024?

On December 31st, 2024, which organization will have the most intelligent publicly available AI model as judged by members of the Samotsvety forecasting group?

On January 1, 2025, which frontier AI lab will have a publicly available model with the highest score on the MMLU benchmark?

Will the highest Elo LLM on Chatbot Arena be non-proprietary during 2024?

On December 31st, 2024, which organization will have the most intelligent publicly available AI model as judged by members of the Samotsvety forecasting group?

On January 1, 2025, which frontier AI lab will have a publicly available model with the highest score on the MMLU benchmark?

Will the highest Elo LLM on Chatbot Arena be non-proprietary during 2024?

On December 31st, 2024, which organization will have the most intelligent publicly available AI model as judged by members of the Samotsvety forecasting group?