Question

When will we have transformative AI?

Total Forecasters151

Community Prediction2040-04-09 (2030-11-21 - 2063-12-18)

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CDF

weight:

	lower 25%	median	upper 75%	>2100-01-01
community	2030	2040	2063	11.6%
My Prediction	—	—	—	—

Quartiles	community	My Prediction
lower 25%	2030	—
median	2040	—
upper 75%	2063	—
Upper bound
>2100-01-01	11.6%	—

Authors:

will_aldred Matthew_Barnett

Opened:

Nov 8, 2023

Closes:

Jan 1, 2050

Scheduled resolution:

Jan 1, 2100

AGI Outcomes

Computing and Math

Artificial Intelligence

Economy & Business

Industrial Revolution

World Bank

Agricultural revolution

Economic growth

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How many years before (or after) AGI is developed, will the world real GDP be 25% higher than every previous year for the first time?

3.96

In which year will the world's real GDP first exceed 130% of its highest level from any previous year?

2049-12-31

Before the first year in which GWP growth exceeds 30%, how many FLOP will be used in the largest ML training run?

1.5×10²⁹

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