Question

When will we have transformative AI?

63 comments63

Total Forecasters151

Community Prediction

2040

(2031 - 2063)

Make a Prediction

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CDF

	lower 25%	median	upper 75%	>2100
community	2031	2040	2063	11.8%
My Prediction	—	—	—	—

Quartiles	community	My Prediction
lower 25%	2031	—
median	2040	—
upper 75%	2063	—
Upper bound
>410244480000%	11.8%	—

Authors:

will_aldred Matthew_Barnett

Opened:

Nov 8, 2023

Closes:

Jan 1, 2050

Scheduled resolution:

Jan 1, 2100

Spot Scoring Time:

Nov 11, 2023

AGI Outcomes

Computing and Math

Artificial Intelligence

Economy & Business

Industrial Revolution

World Bank

Agricultural revolution

Economic growth

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Observer (NY)•Mar 22, 2025

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Newsweek•Mar 19, 2025

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4.16

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2050

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1.5×10²⁹

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