Question

When will we have transformative AI?

63 comments63

Total Forecasters148

Community Prediction2041-05-20 (2031-07-28 - 2067-01-27)

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weight:

My Prediction

community

lower 25%

median

upper 75%

>2100-01-01

...

2031-07-28 07:54

2041-05-20 00:24

2067-01-27 01:23

12.9%

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Authors:

will_aldred Matthew_Barnett

Opened:

Closes:

Scheduled resolution:

AGI Outcomes

Computing and Math

Artificial Intelligence

Economy & Business

Industrial Revolution

World Bank

Agricultural revolution

Economic growth

The shine began to wear off AI in 2024 as advances slowed down

New Scientist•Dec 13, 2024

The limits of intelligence — Why AI advancement could be slowing down

CNBC•Dec 13, 2024

Human Misuse Will Make Artificial Intelligence More Dangerous

Wired•Dec 14, 2024

Learn more about Metaculus NewsMatch

How many years before (or after) AGI is developed, will the world real GDP be 25% higher than every previous year for the first time?

3.45

In which year will the world's real GDP first exceed 130% of its highest level from any previous year?

2048-11-25

Before the first year in which GWP growth exceeds 30%, how many FLOP will be used in the largest ML training run?

1.5×10²⁹

Comments

? comments

Authors:

will_aldred Matthew_Barnett

Opened:

Closes:

Scheduled resolution:

AGI Outcomes

Computing and Math

Artificial Intelligence

Economy & Business

Industrial Revolution

World Bank

Agricultural revolution

Economic growth

The shine began to wear off AI in 2024 as advances slowed down

New Scientist•Dec 13, 2024

The limits of intelligence — Why AI advancement could be slowing down

CNBC•Dec 13, 2024

Human Misuse Will Make Artificial Intelligence More Dangerous

Wired•Dec 14, 2024

Learn more about Metaculus NewsMatch

How many years before (or after) AGI is developed, will the world real GDP be 25% higher than every previous year for the first time?

3.45

In which year will the world's real GDP first exceed 130% of its highest level from any previous year?

2048-11-25

Before the first year in which GWP growth exceeds 30%, how many FLOP will be used in the largest ML training run?

1.5×10²⁹

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When will we have transformative AI?

Make a Prediction

How many years before (or after) AGI is developed, will the world real GDP be 25% higher than every previous year for the first time?

In which year will the world's real GDP first exceed 130% of its highest level from any previous year?

Before the first year in which GWP growth exceeds 30%, how many FLOP will be used in the largest ML training run?

Comments

How many years before (or after) AGI is developed, will the world real GDP be 25% higher than every previous year for the first time?

In which year will the world's real GDP first exceed 130% of its highest level from any previous year?

Before the first year in which GWP growth exceeds 30%, how many FLOP will be used in the largest ML training run?

How many years before (or after) AGI is developed, will the world real GDP be 25% higher than every previous year for the first time?

In which year will the world's real GDP first exceed 130% of its highest level from any previous year?

Before the first year in which GWP growth exceeds 30%, how many FLOP will be used in the largest ML training run?

How many years before (or after) AGI is developed, will the world real GDP be 25% higher than every previous year for the first time?

In which year will the world's real GDP first exceed 130% of its highest level from any previous year?

Before the first year in which GWP growth exceeds 30%, how many FLOP will be used in the largest ML training run?