Question

When will the first cryogenically frozen large mammal be revived?

Total Forecasters17

Community Prediction2079-05-04 (2050-08-20 - 2099-12-31)

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CDF

weight:

	<2023-10-11	lower 25%	median	upper 75%	>2099-12-31
community	1.5%	2050	2079	>2099	45.5%
My Prediction	—	—	—	—	—

Lower bound	community	My Prediction
<2023-10-11	1.5%	—
Quartiles
lower 25%	2050	—
median	2079	—
upper 75%	>2099	—
Upper bound
>2099-12-31	45.5%	—

Authors:

Dumbledores_Army

Opened:

Apr 21, 2024

Closes:

Dec 31, 2099

Scheduled resolution:

Dec 31, 2099

On a quest to revive the woolly mammoth, Colossal Biosciences has created a woolly mouse

TechCrunch•Mar 4, 2025

Mice genetically engineered with thick hair to resemble extinct woolly mammoth

CBS•Mar 4, 2025

Scientists aiming to bring back woolly mammoth create woolly mice

Guardian•Mar 4, 2025

Learn more about Metaculus NewsMatch

When will the first baby of an extinct vertebrate species be born or hatched naturally?

2046-10-12

Before 1 January 2050, will any human cryonically preserved for at least 1 year be successfully revived?

Will a cryonically frozen individual be resuscitated before 2100?

17%

Comments

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Authors:

Dumbledores_Army

Opened:

Apr 21, 2024

Closes:

Dec 31, 2099

Scheduled resolution:

Dec 31, 2099

On a quest to revive the woolly mammoth, Colossal Biosciences has created a woolly mouse

TechCrunch•Mar 4, 2025

Mice genetically engineered with thick hair to resemble extinct woolly mammoth

CBS•Mar 4, 2025

Scientists aiming to bring back woolly mammoth create woolly mice

Guardian•Mar 4, 2025

Learn more about Metaculus NewsMatch

When will the first baby of an extinct vertebrate species be born or hatched naturally?

2046-10-12

Before 1 January 2050, will any human cryonically preserved for at least 1 year be successfully revived?

Will a cryonically frozen individual be resuscitated before 2100?

17%