Question
When will a large language model with a context window of at least 5 million tokens be freely accessible to anyone?
Total Forecasters10
Community Prediction2025-04-06 (2024-07-30 - 2026-06-08)
Make a Prediction
CDF
weight:
| Lower bound | community | My Prediction |
| <2024-01-02 | 12.4% | — |
| Quartiles | ||
| lower 25% | Jul 2024 | — |
| median | Apr 2025 | — |
| upper 75% | Jun 2026 | — |
| Upper bound | ||
| >2049-12-31 | 0.1% | — |
Authors:
Opened:Oct 30, 2023
Closes:Jan 1, 2050
Scheduled resolution:Jan 1, 2050
Comments
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Authors:
Opened:Oct 30, 2023
Closes:Jan 1, 2050
Scheduled resolution:Jan 1, 2050
