🔭 The Bridgewater x Metaculus Forecasting Contest Goes Global — Feb 3

For the second year, Metaculus is teaming up with Bridgewater Associates to host a competition featuring $25k in prizes and potential opportunities with the asset management firm — and this year, forecasters from around the globe can compete.

Start here to register for the February 3rd competition, warm up on practice questions, and learn about the separate Open and Undergraduate leaderboards.

M

Question

When will a large language model with a context window of at least 5 million tokens be freely accessible to anyone?

5
12
Total Forecasters10
Community Prediction2025-04-06 (2024-07-30 - 2026-06-08)

Make a Prediction

weight:
My Prediction
community
<2024-01-02
lower 25%
median
upper 75%
>2049-12-31
...
...
...
...
...
12.4%
2024-07-30 02:15
2025-04-06 06:09
2026-06-08 01:10
0.1%
Learn more about scores here.
Authors:
LordNPython
Opened:
Closes:
Scheduled resolution:
Computing and Math
Artificial Intelligence
Europe
Africa
Asia
Linguistics
North America
Master of Laws
Education

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