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Before 2024, how many hostages will be freed who were captured in the October 7 Hamas attack?

25 comments25

62 forecasters

Forecast Timeline

Released by captor

Rescued or escaped

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Resolved

Authors:

RyanBeck

Opened:

Oct 28, 2023

Closes:

Dec 31, 2023

Resolves:

Jan 3, 2024

🏆 Q4 2023 Quarterly Cup 🏆

Netanyahu threatens Hamas with 'unimaginable' consequences if remaining hostages are not released with 'hell plan' to be imposed in Gaza to force agreement

Daily Mail•Mar 4, 2025

Israeli hostages lost up to 40% of their body weight in Hamas captivity: officials say

New York Post•Mar 6, 2025

Hamas brushes off Trump’s threat and says it will only free hostages in return for a lasting truce

Associated Press•Mar 6, 2025

Learn more about Metaculus NewsMatch

How many hostages will Hamas release after January 26 and before April 5, 2025?

Will Israel lift the blockade to humanitarian aid into Gaza before April 7, 2025?

40%

Will the Gaza war end and significant progress be made towards a two-state solution to the Israel-Palestine conflict before January 1, 2030?

10%

Comments

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Authors:

RyanBeck

Opened:

Oct 28, 2023

Closes:

Dec 31, 2023

Resolves:

Jan 3, 2024

🏆 Q4 2023 Quarterly Cup 🏆

Netanyahu threatens Hamas with 'unimaginable' consequences if remaining hostages are not released with 'hell plan' to be imposed in Gaza to force agreement

Daily Mail•Mar 4, 2025

Israeli hostages lost up to 40% of their body weight in Hamas captivity: officials say

New York Post•Mar 6, 2025

Hamas brushes off Trump’s threat and says it will only free hostages in return for a lasting truce

Associated Press•Mar 6, 2025

Learn more about Metaculus NewsMatch

How many hostages will Hamas release after January 26 and before April 5, 2025?

Will Israel lift the blockade to humanitarian aid into Gaza before April 7, 2025?

40%

Will the Gaza war end and significant progress be made towards a two-state solution to the Israel-Palestine conflict before January 1, 2030?

10%