Question

Will a US aircraft carrier be destroyed in combat before 2030?

4 comments4

Total Forecasters40

Community Prediction5% (3% - 9.2%)

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50%

community: 5%

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Authors:

NMorrison NathanpmYoung ForkLeaf

Opened:

Closes:

Scheduled resolution:

Geopolitics

Technology

Iran

List of aircraft carriers of the United States Navy

Landing helicopter dock

Pentagon Releases Report on Chinese Aircraft Carrier Fleet

Newsweek•Dec 19, 2024

Map Shows US and Chinese Aircraft Carriers in Pacific This Week

Newsweek•Dec 21, 2024

A key answer to China's growing surface navy is America's submarine force

Business Insider•Dec 24, 2024

Learn more about Metaculus NewsMatch

Will a US aircraft carrier be destroyed in combat before 2050?

25%

Will the People's Liberation Army Navy lose at least one surface vessel before 2030?

58.5%

Will there be a US-China war before 2035?

Comments

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Authors:

NMorrison NathanpmYoung ForkLeaf

Opened:

Closes:

Scheduled resolution:

Geopolitics

Technology

Iran

List of aircraft carriers of the United States Navy

Landing helicopter dock

Pentagon Releases Report on Chinese Aircraft Carrier Fleet

Newsweek•Dec 19, 2024

Map Shows US and Chinese Aircraft Carriers in Pacific This Week

Newsweek•Dec 21, 2024

A key answer to China's growing surface navy is America's submarine force

Business Insider•Dec 24, 2024

Learn more about Metaculus NewsMatch

Will a US aircraft carrier be destroyed in combat before 2050?

25%

Will the People's Liberation Army Navy lose at least one surface vessel before 2030?

58.5%