Question

Will western sources conclude, before 2025, that Israel has used white phosphorus improperly?

18 comments18

Total Forecasters117

Community Prediction1% (0.1% - 3%)

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50%

community: 1%

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Authors:

RyanBeck NathanpmYoung

Opened:

Closes:

Scheduled resolution:

Israel-Gaza Conflict

Geopolitics

2021-2025 Leaderboard

Chemical Weapons Convention

White phosphorus munitions

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Will there be a non-test nuclear detonation in Iran before 2025?

0.1%

Will 3 mainstream American news outlets report that a rebel group perpetrated the 2013 Ghouta Chemical Attack before August 21, 2033?

45%

Will any two countries out of the US, UK, Germany, Canada, France, or Australia curtail diplomatic ties with Israel before 2025, citing Israel’s military actions in Gaza?

0.1%

Comments

? comments

Authors:

RyanBeck NathanpmYoung

Opened:

Closes:

Scheduled resolution:

Israel-Gaza Conflict

Geopolitics

2021-2025 Leaderboard

Chemical Weapons Convention

White phosphorus munitions

HRW accuses Israel of 'acts of genocide' for restricting Gaza water access

Raw Story•Dec 19, 2024

The chemical weapon accusations against the general killed in Moscow

Guardian•Dec 18, 2024

Investigation reveals civilian toll of Israel airstrikes on Gaza

•Dec 18, 2024

Learn more about Metaculus NewsMatch

Will there be a non-test nuclear detonation in Iran before 2025?

0.1%

Will 3 mainstream American news outlets report that a rebel group perpetrated the 2013 Ghouta Chemical Attack before August 21, 2033?

45%

Will any two countries out of the US, UK, Germany, Canada, France, or Australia curtail diplomatic ties with Israel before 2025, citing Israel’s military actions in Gaza?

0.1%

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Will western sources conclude, before 2025, that Israel has used white phosphorus improperly?

Make a Prediction

Will there be a non-test nuclear detonation in Iran before 2025?

Will 3 mainstream American news outlets report that a rebel group perpetrated the 2013 Ghouta Chemical Attack before August 21, 2033?

Will any two countries out of the US, UK, Germany, Canada, France, or Australia curtail diplomatic ties with Israel before 2025, citing Israel’s military actions in Gaza?

Comments

Will there be a non-test nuclear detonation in Iran before 2025?

Will 3 mainstream American news outlets report that a rebel group perpetrated the 2013 Ghouta Chemical Attack before August 21, 2033?

Will any two countries out of the US, UK, Germany, Canada, France, or Australia curtail diplomatic ties with Israel before 2025, citing Israel’s military actions in Gaza?

Will there be a non-test nuclear detonation in Iran before 2025?

Will 3 mainstream American news outlets report that a rebel group perpetrated the 2013 Ghouta Chemical Attack before August 21, 2033?

Will any two countries out of the US, UK, Germany, Canada, France, or Australia curtail diplomatic ties with Israel before 2025, citing Israel’s military actions in Gaza?

Will there be a non-test nuclear detonation in Iran before 2025?

Will 3 mainstream American news outlets report that a rebel group perpetrated the 2013 Ghouta Chemical Attack before August 21, 2033?

Will any two countries out of the US, UK, Germany, Canada, France, or Australia curtail diplomatic ties with Israel before 2025, citing Israel’s military actions in Gaza?