Question

Will at least 500,000 Palestinians be displaced from Gaza before December 31st, 2025?

11 comments11

Total Forecasters69

Community Prediction18% (10% - 25%)

Make a Prediction

50%

community: 18%

Authors:

JimKat

Opened:

Nov 24, 2023

Closes:

Dec 31, 2025

Scheduled resolution:

Dec 31, 2025

Geopolitics

2021-2025 Leaderboard

Trump doubles down on plan to empty Gaza. This is what he has said and what’s at stake

Associated Press•Feb 12, 2025

The Destruction of the Israel-Hamas War—in Numbers

Time•Feb 18, 2025

Egypt is developing a plan to rebuild Gaza, countering Trump’s call to depopulate the territory

Associated Press•Feb 18, 2025

Learn more about Metaculus NewsMatch

Will Israel establish direct governmental control of the Gaza Strip in 2025?

Will the Gaza war end and significant progress be made towards a two-state solution to the Israel-Palestine conflict before January 1, 2030?

15.5%

How many hostages will Hamas release after January 26 and before April 5, 2025?

Comments

? comments

Authors:

JimKat

Opened:

Nov 24, 2023

Closes:

Dec 31, 2025

Scheduled resolution:

Dec 31, 2025

Geopolitics

2021-2025 Leaderboard

Trump doubles down on plan to empty Gaza. This is what he has said and what’s at stake

Associated Press•Feb 12, 2025

The Destruction of the Israel-Hamas War—in Numbers

Time•Feb 18, 2025

Egypt is developing a plan to rebuild Gaza, countering Trump’s call to depopulate the territory

Associated Press•Feb 18, 2025

Learn more about Metaculus NewsMatch

Will Israel establish direct governmental control of the Gaza Strip in 2025?

Will the Gaza war end and significant progress be made towards a two-state solution to the Israel-Palestine conflict before January 1, 2030?

15.5%