Question

Will any Chinese semiconductor foundry have at least 20% of the market cap that TSMC has in 2028?

2 comments2

Total Forecasters39

Community Prediction30% (15% - 40%)

Make a Prediction

50%

community: 30%

Authors:

DerMannOhneEigenschaften

Opened:

Dec 6, 2023

Closes:

Jan 1, 2028

Scheduled resolution:

Jan 1, 2028

Semiconductor fabrication plant

Market capitalization

China

TSMC

Whither the Silicon Shield: China’s Plans for Reunification and Supply Chain Risks

Townhall•Feb 12, 2025

What changes to the CHIPS act could mean for AI growth and consumers

Associated Press•Feb 16, 2025

What Changes to the CHIPS Act Could Mean for AI Growth

Time•Feb 17, 2025

Learn more about Metaculus NewsMatch

Will any Chinese semiconductor foundry have 20% or more global semiconductor market share before 2033?

60%

Will a Chinese fab achieve a process with a density of greater than 150M transistors per square millimeter by 2027?

75%

Will a Chinese fab have a volume production process that uses EUV photolithography before 2033?

80%

Comments

? comments

Authors:

DerMannOhneEigenschaften

Opened:

Dec 6, 2023

Closes:

Jan 1, 2028

Scheduled resolution:

Jan 1, 2028

Semiconductor fabrication plant

Market capitalization

China

TSMC

Whither the Silicon Shield: China’s Plans for Reunification and Supply Chain Risks

Townhall•Feb 12, 2025

What changes to the CHIPS act could mean for AI growth and consumers

Associated Press•Feb 16, 2025

What Changes to the CHIPS Act Could Mean for AI Growth

Time•Feb 17, 2025

Learn more about Metaculus NewsMatch

Will any Chinese semiconductor foundry have 20% or more global semiconductor market share before 2033?

60%

Will a Chinese fab achieve a process with a density of greater than 150M transistors per square millimeter by 2027?

75%

Will a Chinese fab have a volume production process that uses EUV photolithography before 2033?

80%